Phil Better Not See His Shadow

If you’re from America or Canada you’re probably already aware of the odd American tradition where men dressed in top hats and long coats pull a groundhog out of hibernation and wait to see if he sees his shadow.

This is extremely popular in the Pennsylvania Dutch community because it stems from areas in Europe that were Celtic in ancient times and were later inhabited by Germanic speakers. Groundhog Day has roots in the same cycle of pagan festivals that gave us holidays like Halloween and Mayday also known as Labor Day. 

We aren’t just dressing up, asking for candy, and taking the day off of work. We are celebrating the passing of time and the changing of the seasons. 

These holidays are cross-quarter days, meaning they fall midway between a solstice and an equinox. Solstices and equinoxes are opposites and signal the changing of the seasons. The seasons change because the planet is slightly tilted on its axis as it travels around the Sun. This means different points on Earth receive more or less sunlight at different times of year. 

If the Earth was not tilted, the Sun would always appear to be directly above the Equator and there would be no seasons. There also would be no need to mark equinoxes or solstices.

In the Northern Hemisphere, the vernal equinox is on about March 21st and the day and night have equal length, marking the start of spring. The summer solstice is on June 20th or 21st. This is the longest day of the year, marking the beginning of summer. 

The autumnal equinox is on about September 23rd and the day and night have equal length, marking the start of autumn. Finally, the winter solstice is on December 21st or 22nd. This is the shortest day of the year, marking the beginning of winter. 

February 2nd is a significant day since it falls midway between the winter solstice and spring equinox. 

Holidays like Halloween and Labor Day stemmed from festivals celebrated throughout Europe by the Celts. The Celtic names for the four festivals were Samhain, Imbolc, Beltaine, and Lughnasa. These festivals celebrated these transitional days and looked ahead to the future. 

The Irish saga titled “The Wooing of Emer” references Imbolc and calls it “the beginning of Spring.” The saga claims the name derives from an ancient word for sheep because this “is the time when sheep come out and are milked.” This story shows that Imbolc was considered a seasonal turning point and connected with agriculture and animals. 

We don’t know much else about how they celebrated Imbolc in ancient times but we do know that it marks the first day of spring and it’s very important. The Encyclopedia of Irish Spirituality explains that this day remains an agricultural festival since farmers expect good weather for planting on this day. 

As Christianity spread through Europe, the timing and themes of Imbolc coincided with Candlemas which is a feast commemorating the presentation of Jesus at the Holy Temple in Jerusalem. In certain parts of Europe, Christians believed that sunshine on Candlemas meant another 40 days of cold and snow. 

Germans took this belief and did their own spin on it. They would only claim the day was sunny if badgers and other small animals saw their shadows. If it was sunny and they saw their shadows, winter would continue. 

When German immigrants settled in Pennsylvania in the 18th and 19th centuries, they brought this tradition with them and chose a more American animal called the groundhog to be the annual forecaster. 

The First Phil 

In 1886, a local editor of the Punxsutawney Spirit Newspaper, Clymer H. Freas was inspired to create Phil by the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club who led the local tradition of hunting and barbecuing groundhogs. 

Because of his editing clout, he was able to proclaim a local groundhog named Punxsutawney Phil to be the one and only official weather-forecasting groundhog. So, on February 2, 1887, the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club and the local Elks Lodge went to Gobbler’s Knob where Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow and predicted six more weeks of winter for the first time. 

Punxsutawney Phil's fame began to spread, and newspapers from around the globe began to report Punxsutawney Phil's Groundhog Day predictions. Now, every February 2nd, tens of thousands of people attend Groundhog Day events in Punxsutawney. For reference, Punxsutawney is home to a little over 6,000 residents. 

Although he’s legendary, he’s not very accurate. Studies from the National Climatic Data Center show that Phil has only been correct about 49% of the time. In 2024, he predicted an early spring. In 2023, he predicted more winter. It’s important to note that thousands of Eagles fans showed up to celebrate Phil and the Philadelphia Eagles being in the Superbowl. 

Phil Fun Facts

His full name is Punxsutawney Phil, Seer of Seers, Sage of Sages, Prognosticator of Prognosticators, and Weather Prophet Extraordinary. 

Typical groundhogs weigh between 12 and 15 pounds, but our boy Phil is a whopping 22 pounds. Groundhogs also only live 6 to 8 years, but legend has it that Phil sips a magical drink that makes him immortal…I think. Apparently, he’s over 125 years old.

He even lived through Prohibition and threatened to impose 60 more weeks of winter if he wasn’t allowed to have a stiff drink. 

Phil stars alongside Bill Murray in the film Groundhog Day which wasn’t shot in Punxsutawney, but actually in Woodstock, Illinois. The movie follows Bill Murray’s character who is a mean reporter who becomes good after reliving the same day over and over again when he goes to Punxsutawney to film a report about their annual Groundhog Day festivities. 

While no one knows for sure, it’s estimated that Bill Murray’s character in the movie relived the same day 12,403 times meaning he spent 33 years and 358 days on the same day. 

This trope has become very popular in movies. Some examples include Palm Springs, Happy Death Day, Happy Death Day 2U, and Run Lola Run. Even movies like 50 First Dates and The Butterfly Effect can fall under this trope. 

Plenty of Phils to Go Around 

So, we have discussed Mr. Phil, but have you considered other animals predicting the weather? Possibly predicting it better than Phil?

Potomac Phil is a tradition in D.C. He’s a stuffed groundhog that makes predictions about both the physical and political climate. He’s the Jaden Smith of Groundhogs. Fuck weather, he wants to talk about the economic and political state of the world right now. 

Staten Island Chuck, also known as Charles G. Hogg, makes his prediction at the Staten Island Zoo every year and he’s accurate 80% of the time which beats Punxsutawney Phil. 

During the Groundhog Day celebrations in 2014, then-Mayor Bill de Blasio couldn’t get a good grip on Charlotte, who was playing the role of Staten Island Chuck that day. He couldn’t hold onto Charlotte and she fell headfirst onto the ground and she was found dead a week later due to acute internal injuries. 

To be fair, De Blasio isn’t a professional zoo keeper and he was wearing protective gloves which made it harder to hold her. The Staten Island Zoo examined Charlotte after the fall and claimed her death was unrelated to the incident. The zoo also revised its Groundhog Day policy to prohibit anyone, including the mayor, from handling the groundhogs. 

So in 2015, De Blasio watched the Groundhog festivities from behind plexiglass. In 2016, Mayor Adams skipped the festivities and no mayor has ever returned. 

Maybe we should all skip celebrations where untrained people pick up animals they really shouldn’t. 

It’s not surprising that PETA is against this tradition. They even wrote on their website that they have pointed out for years that Punxsutawney Phil is not a meteorologist and did not ask for this job!

They point out that groundhogs are really shy animals who only socialize with other groundhogs to find a partner. Phil should be swimming and climbing and creating complex, multichambered burrows. 

But instead, he is kept in enclosures and PETA wants Phil to be retired to a sanctuary. The organization told Groundhog Day Club president Tom Dunkel that they would provide a “weather reveal cake” instead of pulling Punxsutawney Phil out of his hole. 

PETA President Ingrid Newkirk explained "If the inside of the cake is blue, there will be six more weeks of winter. If it’s pink, there will be an early spring. This would allow you to still make tourism dough while showing Phil a slice of decency. It would be at least as accurate as asking a groundhog what to expect in a way that doesn’t even reflect his nature.” 

Newkirk went on to point out that groundhogs are shy prey animals who actively avoid humans when allowed and called out the Groundhog Club for subjecting Phil "to a noisy announcer, screaming crowds, and flashing lights against all his natural instincts." 

This isn’t the first year PETA has attempted to retire Punxsutawney Phil. In 2024, the group offered to replace the groundhog with a giant gold coin, while in 2022 they suggested officials predict the weather with persimmon seeds.

I agree with the gold coin since it seems to be more accurate than Phil anyway. Or let’s all use a stuffed groundhog and pretend that it talks to the freaky men in top hats and long coats because guess what, stuffed groundhogs also cast shadows. Or not. Just depends when the sun comes out.